Volume 1 number 1, January 1999 TEOTWAWI: Politico-Financial Musings Impeachment Outcome It seemed to me, back in August, following President Clinton’s grand jury testimony, that impeachment by the House and a trial by the Senate were preordained. Regardless of all the endless discussion of partisanship, censure alternatives, and the no-Viagra-needed Starr Report, to do anything else would be to operate extraconstitutionally. President Clinton did commit perjury—a crime for which many Americans are imprisoned. As the trial proceeds, the Senate will find itself in a difficult position. If they acquit, they are tacitly condoning a two class system of justice. If they convict, they must force Mr. Clinton’s removal from office. Surprisingly, (to those who know me), I do not advocate removal of the President. If any compromise can be reached constitutionally, I would argue for conviction, censure, and a statement to the effect that this offense, in this backdrop, does not warrant removal from office. The Bug The Millenium Bug (Y2K) will have a significant effect on most of the world beginning this fall. The effect will fall far short of what the extremists predict, (financial meltdown, planes falling out of the skies, etc.), but will affect nearly everyone in some way. I am quite confident that America’s corporations, utilities, and financial institutions will meet the challenge and be prepared for any disruption. I am less sanguine about the preparedness of many of our governmental bodies, including federal, state and local. Remember that a chain is only as strong as its weakest link, and a lack of bug-hunting success by a large foreign bank or other institution could have serious repercussions around the world. Word has it that the Japanese are pooh-poohing the problem… You Heard It Here First The 2000 Presidential election will be between Algore (who’s so dull that his Secret Service nickname is Algore) and Elizabeth Dole. While this may be news to undeclared front runner and all-but-anointed Republican candidate George Bush of Texas, it makes too much sense for the party to ignore. Libby Dole is very bright and articulate, and if the Republicans know what’s good for them, she could hasten the swing of women voters to the GOP that began in the ‘98 midterms. Birth of a Currency On January 4, the world witnessed the introduction of a new currency—the euro. Eleven European countries agreed to tie their own currencies to this future medium of exchange. While it will still be a few years (2002) before you can hold a euro note or coin in your hand, the new currency began trading in world commodity and futures markets, and European financial instruments were being quoted in euros as well as their home currencies. The initial exchange rate versus the US dollar was set at just under $1.18. It has since weakened by approximately 2 1/2%. When and if the yen regains relevance, world trade will be dominated by the three currencies. LiveBait.com I could not possibly conclude this inaugural column without discussing those tulip bulbs of 1998, the Internet stocks. When people inquire about the purchase of Ebay, Ubid, Amazon, Lycos, or Yahoo, I ask them if they would rather invest in a company with assets. It’s hard for me to believe that a company which has a market value of over $20 billion exists only on a server somewhere. A few weeks (and about 100 points) ago, you could own outright the New York Times, Mcgraw-Hill Publishing, and all the Hilton hotels, resorts, and casinos for the same amount of money it would take to own Yahoo! Have you missed out on 1200% gains in the last six months? Temporarily, perhaps… Mark G. Simpson is Director of Park and Recreations for the Ester Community Association and Commissioner of the EFL. He has lived in Ester for 20 years. | ||
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